Will Mnangagwa succeed where Smith and Mugabe failed?
Current absence of a shooting war on the streets does not amount to peace
By Trevor Ncube
What name do you give to what almost always happens at the end of years of brutal repression? The thing that happens when people say, enough is enough of the gratuitous insults, political arrogance, authoritarianism, incarceration and torture? I deeply and genuinely fear we are headed firmly in that direction unless we urgently and deliberately course correct.
The Ndebele proverb: “Okungapheliyo kuyahlola,” aptly captures the essence that nothing lasts forever. The Shona version is: “Chisangaperi chinoshura.” Almost everything comes to an end, sooner or later. Empires rise and fall. Leaders rise and fall.
The late Ian Smith, Prime Minister of the then Rhodesia, once declared, “I don’t believe in majority rule ever in Rhodesia – not in a thousand years.” But 14 years later with approximately 100 000 people dead, Zimbabwe welcomed majority rule.
Ensconced in power for 37 years, the late Robert Mugabe said, “Only God, who appointed me, will remove me – not the MDC, not the British. I am the leader of the people, and I will never, never, never, never surrender.” A Zanu-PF faction with the help of the army and egged on by cheering multitudes eventually removed Mugabe, before God did.
One would have thought having forcibly removed Mugabe from office Mnangagwa would be alive to the dangers of repression as a tool for extended political tenure. Mnangagwa’s conduct betrays the fact he is well aware he is unpopular after the 2017 coup and the stolen 2023 election. He is not even attempting to win the hearts and minds of the people.
Zimbabwe feels like a political pressure cooker right now with the high risk of a blowout. Instead of addressing the issues causing the volatile, tense and unstable political environment, the regime risks blowback by upping the heat. The arrogance with which this is being done is utterly astounding.
The secret sauce to repression is that a little bit of it needs more of it to sustain it. Dictators only know how to start and maintain this vicious cycle. The end to dictatorships is always predictable and unavoidable. Karma always strikes tyrants in the end.
There is no doubt that political activists and civil society were planning protests in the run up to and during the SADC Heads of State Summit in Harare. This is all part of the legitimate tension between the government and other actors in any democracy.
Given the damage to property and loss of life witnessed from previous protests there is a heavy burden of responsibility for those organizing protests, to ensure they are peaceful. The role of the police is to protect both the public and protestors alike.
Someone once said: “Public protests in a democracy constitute the highest form of patriotism.” The Mnangagwa regime is acutely insecure and sees a potential coup in any expression of discontent.
The heavy handed response to planned protests by the regime has done tremendous damage to their vacuous mantra of being open for business and serious about international re-engagement. It has exposed Mnangagwa’s instinct towards brute force and repression.
Repressive regimes rarely convert to being tolerant and democratic. And yet the suffering masses sometimes do get to a point where doing nothing about their circumstances is as painful as the price of fighting for their freedom. When that fine line is crossed there is no guarantee of what comes next. History is littered with examples of spontaneous expression of dissatisfaction followed by extended periods of social and political instability.
Zimbabwe has been in crisis for too long. The country needs statesmen right now to steer it towards nation building and away from instability and chaos; statesmen who understand the threat of this political pressure cooker exploding if polarisation and rising tensions are not reduced.
Leaders must recognise that the current absence of a shooting war in Zimbabwe does not amount to peace. Genuine peace requires addressing underlying issues such as poverty, political gridlock, repression and corruption. The fear and the tension are palpable. This environment is not conducive to economic development and prosperity.
So, what must be done?
All political leaders, ruling party and opposition, the church and civil society must call for a conference of all stakeholders to begin the heavy lifting work of nation building and durable peace. This all-stakeholders summit is not about personalities or who stole the last election. The meeting should be about how to build a durable and vibrant society where citizens give off their best and reap the rewards. Citizens should feel sufficiently confident that future generations will prosper in this country.
The focus must be on strengthening the culture of the rule of law and constitutionalism at political party and national levels. Building inclusive and resilient national institutions must be high on the agenda of the all-stakeholders conference.
Zimbabweans need to start talking to each other to create an outlet for the current high levels of fear, toxicity and intolerance. Police batons and teargas don’t build a nation. Dialogue, communication, compromise and consensus are the stuff that build resilient and prosperous nations.
Instead of the current talk of a third term for Mnangagwa he could secure his legacy by initiating tolerance and democracy within the ruling Zanu-PF party itself and the entire country. He could ensure that Zimbabwe fully reverts to the 2013 constitution before the end of his current and final term in office.
Mnangagwa could secure his legacy by calling for an all-stakeholders’ conference to initiate far-reaching political and economic reforms that would give birth to the Zimbabwe we thought independence in 1980 would deliver. These reforms, initiated by Zimbabweans for the benefit of Zimbabweans, include free and fair elections, freedom of assembly and speech, sanctity of life, an independent judiciary and a security sector that is subject to the laws of the land.
All repressive laws must be repealed to undergird genuine peace in the country. All the above would be a firm foundation for economic reforms that would then attract local and foreign investments to fuel economic growth and prosperity.
Dream on, I hear you say.
I would rather that than more of the same from Zanu-PF and the opposition at the risk of a spontaneous uprising. I don’t see any other way that would bring about course correction in the ruling party, the opposition and the rest of society.
Zimbabwe needs courageous and selfless citizens to re-imagine and rebuild a nation out of the mess we have collectively created. Let us reject toxicity, provincialism, mediocrity and reach higher for our better angels.
Trevor Ncube is the Chairman of Alpha Media Holdings and the host of convowithtrevor.com. This is an excerpt from the weekly ICWT newsletter. Please subscribe for thought provoking insights.
Mr Ncube, I hear your plea. However, there is one key aspect to both Ian Smith and Robert Mugabe that is totally missing in Emmerson Mnangagwa's character. Smith and Mugabe had some modicum of compunction.
Say what we may about Smith and Mugabe, at least there were people to whom both men listened.
When John Vorster told Smith the Rhodesian war had been lost, Smith became less recalcitrant. Smith understood that Vorster wanted to avoid the Rhodesian War to spill over to the south of the Limpopo River, which was inevitable if he kept his support for Smith's doomed project. Smith got the message. He eventually had to cede power. I am not sure about the intimate details about his post-power protection, but I am sure there was a solid agreement to protect Smith from both the British and the Zimbabwean, parties that had suffered as a result of his brutal behaviour. Of course, we all know that people simply forgave him. To my knowledge, he was never molested out of vengeance.
Mugabe was forced by Samora Machel to go back to the Lancaster House Talks. In 2017, it took the Roman Catholic Church to ask him to step aside without putting up a fight. The third factor we might easily overlook is the ngozi factor. Mugabe lived in mortal fear of ngozi, never mind his much-touted Jesuit spiritual roots. That fear restrained him much more than we realize.
Mnangagwa is completely different. To whom does he listen? The venal denizens of the ANC? Fikile Mbalula? Cyril Ramaphosa? A bag of hard cash here, and a bag of hard cash there will buy protection from the ANC. Mnangagwa has an obsession for money, the reason he openly says: "Make money!" Is it not possible that everyone has a monetary desire that can be exploited?
Unlike Mugabe, there is little evidence that Mnangagwa can be restrained by the fear of ngozi. If you recall Mugabe's words on the even of the 2018 elections, he cryptically asked Mnangagwa: "Uri munhu hwai asingagone kurara asina kuona chitunha?" Mugabe had intimately known Mnangagwa for many decades, spanning from the 1960s to 2017. In 1977, it was Mugabe who mysteriously chose Mnangagwa as his personal bodyguard after Mugabe had narrowly won the ZANU leadership in a contest against Dr Joseph Taderera. The question Mugabe posed did not require an answer. It was rhetorical in nature. Put simply, Mugabe was exposing to the Zimbabwean people that Mnangagwa cannot be reined in by the kind of means that are effective against culturally normal people. Mnangagwa's cultural abnormalities are evident in some of his public utterances. Not too long ago, he open said: "Hapana wandinotya." That was a candid statement. He fears no one, neither does he fear anything, precisely the point that Mugabe made in 2018.
Looking at it, Mnangagwa's tenancy in the presidency is less about power than it is about his protection. He is in power as a refugee because he has antagonized a lot of people throughout his life. His arrogance and raw brutality, epitomized by the murakashi name, frighten him very much. Mnangagwa may not feel safe anywhere outside the protective fortress of the presidency. He is cornered man. That makes him deadly. Elections, imprecations to the ancestors, military threats (internal and external), newspaper columns, prayers, and petitions to regional and global powerbrokers will not move him even an inch. Mark my words.
Lastly, some of us tried to warn people like you, Hopewell Chin'ono, Nkosana Moyo and Petina Gappah about the exuberant support you were giving Mnangagwa in 2017. I hated Mugabe as much as you did. However, there was ample evidence that Mnangagwa, who sharpened his teeth and claws as Mugabe's arch-henchman, was a far deadlier monster than the widely hated Mugabe. To your credit, you have seen the light, like Saul of Tarsus. You were brave enough to publicly admit that you erred and that you were not as thoughtful in your support of Mnangagwa as you ought to have been. I appreciate the fact that you are trying to make amends, which is what a God-loving man and patriot does. By contrast, Moyo and Gappah, even the noisy Evan Mawarire, have literally gone into hibernation. Chin'ono is on a quixotic mission with the apparent objective of being looked upon as a messiah, but without the public mea culpa for his 2017 sins.
Ndataurisa. Ndinoera Moyo, saka please forgive me.